Living with Strangers Free Essays

In the event that you live with commotion, Ignorance and superfluous consideration as standards consistently. I accept you live In a city with rambling life. On the off chance that you particularly need to go to one of these sort of urban areas, at that point you could without much of a stretch go to New York. We will compose a custom article test on Living with Strangers or on the other hand any comparative subject just for you Request Now Since a great deal of the perspectives you would assume are in a city, really discovers place at this extraordinary spot. Many individuals imagine that the attractions make the city one of a kind with high rises coming to over the skies. A tall and pleased woman welcomes everybody that shows up, and alluded various occasions through verse and melodies, however at this case, it isn't the environmental factors cap Is uncommon, about this city. Rather, we need to look towards the individuals offense York. They make New York one of a kind on account of the Ignorance they are equipped for appearing out in the open. In this article, Sir Hustled essentially centers around an unwritten law †the imagine it-isn’t-happening-law. It is an odd wonder since one would imagine that individuals move to the urban areas to be around others and to get in contact with other lost spirits when, truth be told, more often than not is spent inside or looking down at the ground In a jam-packed metro. This can be seen all through the story, for instance, goodness can see toward the starting where she moves to New York from an unassuming community In Minnesota where it is entirely expected to state â€Å"hi†, and in the event that you don't do it, at that point it will be considered as self-importance. Contrasted with New York that idiom â€Å"hi† to an outsider would be viewed as peculiar. In any case, the inquiry is what way, is the correct method to respond on the off chance that somebody welcomes you? This is the motivation behind why Sir Hustled doesn't have a response to this yet this Is the reason she decided to compose a paper. It Is essentially an emotional assortment of her contemplations on this Issue she has partitioned Into three shopping center parts, the first being her own back-story. In addition to the fact that this provides the peruser a snappy Idea of who the writer is and how she feels with a domain so not quite the same as what she is utilized to, however progressively basic, a presentation like this is principal in all sorts on the off chance that you need to get an association with your perusers. Above all else, we feel unknown in thick urban communities since everybody are caught up with accomplishing something different, and don't have the foggiest idea, which could Indicate the motivation to why there is a lot of wrongdoing In gigantic urban areas. Second, this might be the reality to why individuals are acting insane in broad daylight, since you don't know even a small amount of the residents, you permit yourself to be progressively outgoing. Hustled bolsters her own hypothesis about the urban laws by saying that in each city, there are couple of nuts who conveys their message. Maybe about that affection is just sent from Jesus Christ, or we are destined in year x. Be that as it may, it appears as though these nuts are not getting any reaction, yet they start a response of feelings inside the head of ordinary individuals â€Å"pretend it isn’t occurring, imagine It Isn’t happening†¦ â€Å". To this point, Sirs Hustled has censured the urban law carefully, be that as it may, In the last piece of the paper, It appears as though she recognizes the upsides of this impact provided that you are engaging in a conversation, it can wind up horrendously off-base, in the event that you Just essentially ask someone else considerately, to kill his cigarette inside a metro, you could get a danger with your life at stakes. Consequently, he despite everything violated the urban law about â€Å"pretend it isn’t happening†, and obnoxiously assaults the little man, who was asking amiable. On the other Sir Hustler’s girl, Sophie, took the tram when abruptly a nut said to Sophie the amount he cherished her. She attempted to disregard him, however toward the end she felt awkward overlooking him. At that point, out of nowhere, someone else intruded on, attempting to be snide and entertaining. By doing this he recognized what he Just have had bean observer to out in the open. This man helped Sophie, he helped her give a grin all over, and through this, he changed her whole day. However, he could have been a crowd of people and it would have appeared as though it never had occurred. What may just appear as a situation could be in the following second reality. As it were, this opens a window to another universe of characters, and this is the thing that Sir Hustled is attempting to communicate oblivious. A dull and static piece of the human, abruptly gets customized and gives us that appeal and argumentation, can help us towards coming more grounded people. On the off chance that you make a point of view to the town where Hustled is from in Minnesota, you will see that Just on the grounds that you utilize the meet- - welcome strategy, where you Just monotone state â€Å"h'† to another, doesn't make you to a more genuine individual than one who overlooks you in New York. The implicit laws of a general public may assist individuals with getting by in a specific situation at the end of the day it keeps us from considering others unpredictability. Rather than speculation everybody is an individual, you think everybody is a piece of a gathering. On the off chance that you need to become somebody, you need to confide in yourself. Step by step instructions to refer to Living with Strangers, Papers

Grover Cleveland Free Essays

Grover Cleveland ! Stephen Grover Cleveland was conceived on March 18, 1837, in Caldwell, New Jersey. Cleveland’s father was a pastor, initially from Connecticut, and his mom was from Baltimore. He was the ? fth of nine kids, named Stephen Grover, however he didn't utilize the name â€Å"Stephen† in his grown-up life. We will compose a custom exposition test on Grover Cleveland or then again any comparative point just for you Request Now ! In 1841, his family moved to Fayetteville, New York where he burned through the majority of his adolescence. In 1850 Cleveland’s father took a pastorate in Clinton, New York , and the family needed to move to oblige for his activity. They moved again in 1853 to Holland Patent, New York. Not long after the move Cleveland? s father past away. After the demise of his dad Cleveland dropped out of school to help bolster his family. A senior in his congregation offered to pay his school educational cost in the event that he vowed to be a clergyman like his dad, Cleveland declined, and rather chose to move West. On his way West, Cleveland halted by his uncles house in Buffalo, New York. While there he was given an administrative activity at his uncles law ? rm. Cleveland uncle was a notable individual in New York, and he would acquaint him with a great deal of in? uential men there. Cleveland later took a clerkship with the ? rm, and afterward turned into a certi? ed legal counselor. Leaving his uncle? s ? rm in 1962 to begin his own ? m. He constructed a notoriety for himself as being submitted and devotion to difficult work. ! Cleveland avoided legislative issues until 1970, where he ran for sheriff of Erie County, which he won. After his multi year term as sheriff he came back to the ? eld of law, opening law ? rm with his two companions. There he ended up at the highest point of Buffalo’s legitimate network. ! In 1881 the law based gathering pioneers moved toward Cleveland and inquired as to whether he might want to run for Mayor of Buffalo, he took of? ce January 2, 1882. His term as city hall leader gave him the notoriety of being a legitimate government official, the notoriety before long spread past Erie County. As Cleveland? s notoriety developed, the law based gathering started to think of him as a potential chosen one for senator. At the point when the majority rule show couldn't settle on their two driving competitors Rosewell P. Bloom, and Henry W. Slocum, Cleveland developed as the trade off decision, and on January first 1883, he took of? ce winning the political race by an embarrassing margin. Cleveland’s obtuse, legit ways as representative won him well known recognition. ! In 1884 Cleveland was viewed as a main contender for the presidential designation. What's more, because of bombing wellbeing of different contenders he was assigned to be the popularity based candida te for the 1884 political decision. While the well known vote was close, with Cleveland winning by only one-fourth of a percent, the discretionary votes gave Cleveland a greater part of 219â€182. What's more, is confirmed as leader of the United States on March fourth, 1885. ! Cleveland’s ? rst term was uneventful, however was set apart by ? rmness on his part to the standards which he esteemed profitable to the country. He utilized the veto power upon bills passed by Congress. On June 2, 1886, Cleveland wedded Frances Folsom, in the Blue Room of the white house. He was the subsequent president to be hitched in the White House. After his ? st term was up the law based gathering renominated Cleveland, however he lost the political race, accepting 168 discretionary votes, to Benjamin Harrison? s 233 votes. Despite the fact that Cleveland had lost the discretionary votes, he had won the well known vote by increasingly then 100,000 votes. Cleveland resigned to private life and continued the act of the law in New York. ! In 1892 Cleveland was selected for president a third time in progression. He won getting 277 discretionary votes to Harrison? s 145 (22 were thrown for James B. Weaver of Iowa, the up-and-comer of the â€Å"People’s† party). Cleveland’s second term incorporated some significant occasions. The most significant was the cancelation of the silver enactment, which had been a developing hazard for ? fteen years. ! Cleveland’s second term terminated on the fourth of March 1897, and he at that point resigned into private life. He was very much regarded, and continually counseled on his insight. He was a trustee of Princeton University and Stafford Little instructor on open undertakings. Furthermore, lived in New Jersey, until his demise on the 24th of June 1908. Significant Event During Administration ! Grover Cleveland? s ? rst term (1885-1889) was uneventful. Cleveland utilized his veto power sparingly. Vetoing 413 bills in his ? st term, more than 66% of which were private annuity bills. Cleveland diminished tax collection upon American residents, because of the developing overflow of cash in the United States Treasury. Cleveland was additionally a backer of the tax change. He accepted that the levy ought to be diminished, this con? ict was never settled in Cleveland? s 1885-1889 term, and would stay an issue for the up and coming decisions. During his ? rst term, Cleveland named two judges to the preeminent court. The ? rst, Lucius Q. C. Lamar in 1887, and the second Melville Fuller a couple of months after the fact. ! Grover Cleveland? s second term (1893-1897) contained some remarkable occasions. The most significant was the nullification of the silver enactment, this had been crawling up for as long as 15 years. Individuals would turn their coin notes in for gold, rather than silver, causing an exhaustion of the United States gold save. Cleveland canceled the demonstration to forestall the consumption of the country’s gold stores. The issues for Cleveland didn? t stop there however. A strike started against the Pullman Company (assembling of railroad vehicles) against low wages and long work hours, and by June 1894, 125,000 railroad laborers were protesting, incapacitating the countries exchange. Cleveland felt that a government arrangement was required. So he sent government troops to the rail habitats to protect the trade of the US proceeded. ! Having turned around the silver enactment, Cleveland? s next objective was to turn around the impacts of the McKinley levy. The Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act was ? nally went in 1894 after numerous changes by the house, this somewhat decreased the United States duty rates, and forced a 2% annual expense. Cleveland was shocked with the ? nal bill and condemned it as shameful result of the control of the Senate. Still he trusted it was an improvement over the McKinley duty and permitted it to turn into a law without his mark. Objectives and Initiatives Election of 1884 ! Cleveland? s crusade for his 1884 political race was centered fundamentally around the defilement in governmental issues. His notoriety for being an adversary of defilement end up being one of the Democrats most grounded resource for the 1884 political decision. His adversary James G. Blaine was known to be a degenerate government official, he would corruptly in? uenced enactment for the accomplishment of organizations , later master? ting on the offer of bonds he claimed in them. This degree of defilement made a few people swarm over to Cleveland? s side, since they were more worried about ethical quality than with party. ! Cleveland lectured trustworthiness and ef? iency in government. In any event, when Cleveland was accused of fathering an ill-conceived kid, he quickly conceded the chance of himself being the children father. Appointment of 1888 ! Cleveland? s renomination in 1888, against Republican chosen one, Benjamin Harrison, was centered for the most part around the Wilsonâ€Gorman Tariff Act. The republicans forcefully safeguarded defensive taxes, where as Cleveland felt the duty cost? s ought to be decreased. ! Cleveland was sure that he would have the option to pull another triumph in this political decision, and despite the fact that he had won the mainstream vote 48. 6 percent to Harrison? s 47. percent he lost the discretionary vote due to somewhat losing in the significant game evolving states. ! Appointment of 1892 ! The appointment of 1892 was a rematch of the prior year, with the democrats selecting Grover Cleveland, and the republicans naming Benjamin Harrison. Also, an outsider had risen on the scene: the People’s Party, they had given their assignment to James B. Weaver of Iowa. ! This political race was by Cleveland biographer Allan Nevins, â€Å"the cleanest, calmest, and generally respectable in the memory of the post-war generation† this was for the most part because of the way that Harrison? spouse was biting the dust of tuberculosis. Harrison didn't actually crusade, and Cleveland stuck to this same pattern out of compassion to his political adversary as not to utilize Mrs. Harrison’s ailment to further his potential benefit. ! The issue on taxes had attempted to the republicans advantage the political decision previously, yet in the course of recent years the cost of imported great had gotten increasingly elevated. Such a large number of voters who favored Harrison the prior year had turned their perspectives to either Cleveland or Weaver of the People? s Party. At long last Cleveland won by wide edges in both the famous and discretionary votes, and was chosen the 24th leader of the United States. Accomplishments ! Grover Cleveland had numerous accomplishments during his presidential vocation. He halted the relinquishment of the highest quality level, spared land from Hawaii and right up 'til today is the main president to serve two non-back to back terms. Cleveland had earned the trust of the individuals because of his battles to expel defilement from the political framework. He is likewise one of the eight leaders of the United States to be imprinted on a bill (Paper Currency, $1,000 Bill) Evaluation ! Grover Cleveland appear? s to be the ideal lawmaker. He was straightforward, reasonable, and experienced. I am by all account not the only one who thought so too. In the multiple times Cleveland had run for president, he had won the well known vote without fail. The decisions he made appeared to be extremely shrewd and evoked minimal unfriendly activities from the individuals of the United States. Catalog â€Å"American President Reference Resource: Campaigns and Elections. † Millercenter. organization. The Miller Center, n. d. Web. 22 Oct. 2012. . â€Å"American President. † Millercenter. organization. The Miller Center,

The People You Meet COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog

The People You Meet COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog One of the things I love about my job is that I constantly get to meet fascinating people.   This is certainly the case for SIPA students as well due to the vast number of events held on campus. This week I participated in a Marine Executive Association event in New York City.   The event was a career and education panel focused on helping active and retired Marines think strategically about their future. During the networking portion of the event I met a gentleman by the name of David Danelo who it turns out is an accomplished author.   He has written two books and I immediately added both to my “to read” list.     If you are interested in border issues and/or security issues, it sounds like his two books provide deep insight and fodder for future study and analysis. The book that especially piqued my interest is entitled, The Border: Exploring the U.S. â€" Mexican Divide.   To research the book, David traveled the length of both the U.S. and Mexico sides of the border over a period of several months.   Border issues are a hot political topic and the likelihood of increased discussion in the future makes this sound like a fascinating read. George P. Shultz, U.S. Secretary of State from 1982-89 states: Danelo provides invaluable information and insight in this book, which deserves a wide and attentive audience. The other book is entitled, Blood Stripes â€" A Grunt’s View of the War in Iraq.   The mainstream media often pays attention to the large policy issues related to the war in Iraq, but very rarely have I heard in depth accounts from those in the field. Both of these books look interesting and if either of these topics is of interest to you and you plan on studying at SIPA, they might provide great preparation and insight prior to enrolling in our program. The New York Post states: Activists, left or right, will find this book uncomfortable, but its honesty makes it a great education for the rest of us.

The People You Meet COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog

The People You Meet COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog One of the things I love about my job is that I constantly get to meet fascinating people.   This is certainly the case for SIPA students as well due to the vast number of events held on campus. This week I participated in a Marine Executive Association event in New York City.   The event was a career and education panel focused on helping active and retired Marines think strategically about their future. During the networking portion of the event I met a gentleman by the name of David Danelo who it turns out is an accomplished author.   He has written two books and I immediately added both to my “to read” list.     If you are interested in border issues and/or security issues, it sounds like his two books provide deep insight and fodder for future study and analysis. The book that especially piqued my interest is entitled, The Border: Exploring the U.S. â€" Mexican Divide.   To research the book, David traveled the length of both the U.S. and Mexico sides of the border over a period of several months.   Border issues are a hot political topic and the likelihood of increased discussion in the future makes this sound like a fascinating read. George P. Shultz, U.S. Secretary of State from 1982-89 states: Danelo provides invaluable information and insight in this book, which deserves a wide and attentive audience. The other book is entitled, Blood Stripes â€" A Grunt’s View of the War in Iraq.   The mainstream media often pays attention to the large policy issues related to the war in Iraq, but very rarely have I heard in depth accounts from those in the field. Both of these books look interesting and if either of these topics is of interest to you and you plan on studying at SIPA, they might provide great preparation and insight prior to enrolling in our program. The New York Post states: Activists, left or right, will find this book uncomfortable, but its honesty makes it a great education for the rest of us.

The People You Meet COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog

The People You Meet COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog One of the things I love about my job is that I constantly get to meet fascinating people.   This is certainly the case for SIPA students as well due to the vast number of events held on campus. This week I participated in a Marine Executive Association event in New York City.   The event was a career and education panel focused on helping active and retired Marines think strategically about their future. During the networking portion of the event I met a gentleman by the name of David Danelo who it turns out is an accomplished author.   He has written two books and I immediately added both to my “to read” list.     If you are interested in border issues and/or security issues, it sounds like his two books provide deep insight and fodder for future study and analysis. The book that especially piqued my interest is entitled, The Border: Exploring the U.S. â€" Mexican Divide.   To research the book, David traveled the length of both the U.S. and Mexico sides of the border over a period of several months.   Border issues are a hot political topic and the likelihood of increased discussion in the future makes this sound like a fascinating read. George P. Shultz, U.S. Secretary of State from 1982-89 states: Danelo provides invaluable information and insight in this book, which deserves a wide and attentive audience. The other book is entitled, Blood Stripes â€" A Grunt’s View of the War in Iraq.   The mainstream media often pays attention to the large policy issues related to the war in Iraq, but very rarely have I heard in depth accounts from those in the field. Both of these books look interesting and if either of these topics is of interest to you and you plan on studying at SIPA, they might provide great preparation and insight prior to enrolling in our program. The New York Post states: Activists, left or right, will find this book uncomfortable, but its honesty makes it a great education for the rest of us.

Using Decision Trees In Financial Management - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 11 Words: 3428 Downloads: 2 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Research paper Did you like this example? Decision trees are diagrams that show the sequence of interrelated decisions and the expected results of choosing one alternative over the other. Typically, more than one choice or option is available when youre faced with a decision or, in this case, potential outcomes from a risk event. The available choices are depicted in tree form starting at the left with the risk decision branching out to the right with possible outcomes. Decision trees are usually used for risk events associated with time or cost. Steps in decision tree analysis Main steps in decision tree analysis are as follows: 1. Identifying the problem and alternatives To understand the problem and develop alternatives, it is necessary to acquire information from different sources like marketing research, economic forecasting, financial analysis, etc. As the decision situation unfolds, various alternatives may arise which are to be identified. There would also be kinds of uncertainties in terms of market size, market share, prices, cost structure, availability of raw material and power, governmental regulation. Technological change, competition, etc. Recognising that risk and uncertainty are inherent characteristics of investment projects, persons involved in analyzing the situation must be encouraged to express freely their doubts, uncertainties, and reservation and motivated to suggest contingency plans and identify promising opportunities in the emerging environment. 2. Delineating the decision tree The decision tree represents the anat omy of decision situation. It illustrates decision points along with the alternative options available for experimentation and action at these decision points chance points where outcomes are dependent on a chance process and the likely outcomes at these points This decision tree diagrammatically reflects the nature of decision situation in terms of alternative courses of action and chance outcomes which have been identified in the first step of the analysis. If myriad possible future events and decisions are considered, it can become very complex and cumbersome. As a result, it would not be a useful tool of analysis. If many elaborate events are taken into account then it may obfuscate the critical issues. Hence it is necessary to simplify the decision tree so that focus can be given on major future alternatives. 3. Specifying probabilities and monetary outcomes After delineating the decision tree, probabilities corresponding with each of the possible outcomes at various chance points and monetary value of each combination of decision alternative and chance outcome have to be gathered. The probabilities of various outcomes can be defined objectively. For instance, based on objective historical data the probability of good monsoon can be defined. On the other hand, probabilities for real life outcomes are somewhat difficult and cannot be obtained. For example, one cannot determine the probabilities for success of a new automobile launch. These have to be defined subjectively and based on experience, judgment, understanding of informed executives and their intuition. Also, it is difficult to assess cash flows corresponding to these outcomes. So again judgment of experts helps in defining these cash flows. 4. Evaluating various decision alternatives The final step in decision tree analysis includes evaluation of various alternatives. This can be done as follows: starting with the right- hand end of the tree and then we calculate the expected monetary value at various chance points that come first as we proceed leftward. Given the expected monetary values of chance points in step 1, evaluate the alternatives at the final stage decision points in terms of their expected monetary values. At each of the final stage decision points, select the alternative which has the highest expected monetary value and truncate the other alternatives. Each decision point is assigned a value equal to the expected monetary value of the alternative selected at that decision point. Proceed backward (leftward) in the same manner, calculating the expected monetary value at chance points, selecting the decision alternative which has the highest expected monetary value at various decision points, truncating inferior decision alternatives, and assigning values to decision points, till the first decision point is reached. Wikipedia A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions a nd their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. It is one way to display an algorithm. Decision trees are commonly used in operations research, specifically in decision analysis, to help identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal. Another use of decision trees is as a descriptive means for calculating conditional probabilities. When the decisions or consequences are modelled by computational verb, then we call the decision tree a computational verb decision tree[1]. In decision analysis, a decision tree and the closely-related influence diagram is used as a visual and analytical decision support tool, where the expected values (or expected utility) of competing alternatives are calculated. A decision Tree consists of 3 types of nodes:- 1. Decision nodes commonly represented by squares 2. Chance nodes represented by circles 3. End nodes represented by triangles Drawn from left to right, a decision tree has only burst nodes (splitting paths) but no sink nodes (converging paths). Therefore, used manually, they can grow very big and are then often hard to draw fully by hand. Analysis can take into account the decision makers (e.g., the companys) preference or utility function, for example: The basic interpretation in this situation is that the company prefers Bs risk and payoffs under realistic risk preference coefficients (greater than $400K in that range of risk aversion, the company would need to model a third strategy, Neither A nor B). Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Using Decision Trees In Financial Management" essay for you Create order Uses in teaching This section requires expansion. Decision trees, influence diagrams, utility functions, and other decision analysis tools and methods are taught to undergraduate students in schools of business, health economics, and public health, and are examples of operations research or management science methods. [edit] Advantages Amongst decision support tools, decision trees (and influence diagrams) have several advantages: Decision trees: Are simple to understand and interpret. People are able to understand decision tree models after a brief explanation. Have value even with little hard data. Important insights can be generated based on experts describing a situation (its alternatives, probabilities, and costs) and their preferences for outcomes. Use a white box model. If a given result is provided by a model, the explanation for the result is easily replicated by simple math. Can be combined with other decision techniques. The following example uses Net Present Value calculations, PERT 3-point estimations (decision #1) and a linear distribution of expected outcomes (decision #2): [edit] Example Decision trees can be used to optimize an investment portfolio. The following example shows a portfolio of 7 investment options (projects). The organization has $10,000,000 available for the total investment. Bold lines mark the best selection 1, 3, 5, 6, and 7, which will cost $9,750,000 and create a payoff of 16,175,000. All other combinations would either exceed the budget or yield a lower payoff.[2] Decision Making Tools: Decision Tree Analysis and EMV Decision Makers Toolkit Decision-making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from among multiple alternatives. Every decision-making process produces a final choice. Thats what Wikipedia says anyway. What it doesnt say is that some decisions must be made for outcomes that will occur in the future. However, there are a couple of tools that can be put to use in helping make complex decisions, namely, Expected Monetary Value and Decision Tree Analysis. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) EMV is a balance of probability and its impact over the range of possible scenarios. If you have to make a decision between two scenarios, which one will provide the greater potential payoff? Scenario 1 Best case provides a 20% probability of making $180,000 BC = 20% X $180,000= $36,000 Worst case provides a 15% probability of loosing [-$20,000] WC = 15% X(-$20,000) =(-$3,000) Most likely case provides a 65% probability of making $ 75,000 MLC = 65% X $75,000 = $48,750 Total Expected Monetary Value 100% $81,750 Scenario 2 Best case provides a 15% probability of making $200,000 BC=15% X $200,000 =$30,000 Worst case provides a 25% probability of making $15,000 WC= 25% X $ 15,000 = $ 3,750 Most likely case provides a 60% probability of making $45,000 MLC=60% X $45,000 = $27,000 Total Expected Monetary Value 100% $60,750 Which scenario do you choose? Number one, because it has the highest EMV, or $81,750 Decision Tree Analysis In decision tree analysis, a problem is depicted as a diagram which displays all possible acts, events, and payoffs (outcomes) needed to make choices at different points over a period of time. Example of Decision Tree Analysis: A Manufacturing Proposal Your corporation has been presented with a new product development proposal. The cost of the development project is $500,000. The probability of successful development is projected to be 70%. If the development is unsuccessful, the project will be terminated. If it is successful, the manufacturer must then decide whether to begin manufacturing the product on a new production line or a modified production line. If the demand for the new product is high, the incremental revenue for a new production line is $1,200,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $850,000. If the demand is low, the incremental revenue for the new production line is $700,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified productio n line is $150,000. All of these incremental revenue values are gross figures, i.e., before subtracting the $500,000 development cost, $300,000 for the new production line and $100,000 for the modified production line. The probability of high demand is estimated as 40%, and of low demand as 60%. The development of a decision tree is a multi step process. The first step is to structure the problem using a method called decomposition, similar to the method used in the development of a work breakdown structure. This step enables the decision-maker to break a complex problem down into a series of simpler, more individually manageable problems, graphically displayed in a type of flow diagram called a decision tree. These are the symbols commonly used: The second step requires the payoff values to be developed for each end-position on the decision tree. These values will be in terms of the net gain or loss for each unique branch of the diagram. The net gain/loss will be revenue less expenditure. If the decision to not develop is made, the payoff is $0. If the product development is unsuccessful, the payoff is $500,000. If the development is successful, the decision is to build a new production line (NPL) or modify an existing production line (MPL). The payoff for the NPL high demand is ($ 1,200,000 $500,000 development cost -$300,000 build cost) or $400,000. For a low demand, the payoff is ($700,000 $500,000 development cost -$300,000 build cost) or -$100,000. The payoff for the MPL high demand is ($850,000 -$500,000 development cost $100,000 build cost) or $250,000. For a low demand, the payoff is ($720,000- $500,000 development cost $100,000 build cost) or $120,000. The third step is to assess the probability of occurrence for each outcome: Development Successful = 70% NPL High Demand = 40% MPL High Demand = 40% Development Unsuccessful = 30% NPL Low Demand = 60% MPL Low Demand = 60% Probability Totals* 100% 100% 100% *Probabilities must always equal 100%, of course. The fourth step is referred to as the roll-back and it involves calculating expected monetary values (EMV) for each alternative course of action payoff. The calculation is (probability X payoff) = EMV This is accomplished by working from the end points (right hand side) of the decision tree and folding it back towards the start (left hand side) choosing at each decision point the course of action with the highest expected monetary value (EMV). Decision D2: New Production Line vs. Modified Production Line high demand + low demand = EMV high demand + low demand = EMV (4 0% X $400,000) + (60%X -$100,000) (40% X $250,000)+(60% X $120,000) $100,000 $172,000 Decision Point 2 Decision: Modified Production Line with an EMV of $172,000 Decision 1: Develop or Do Not Develop Development Successful + Development Unsuccessful (70% X $172,000) (30% x (- $500,000)) $120,400 + (-$150,000) Decision Point 1 EMV=(-$29,600) Decision: DO NOT DEVELOP the product because the expected value is a negative number. When doing a decision tree analysis, any amount greater than zero signifies a positive decision. This tool is also very useful when there are multiple cases that need to be compared. The one with the highest payoff should be picked. Real options analysis: tools and techniques for valuing strategic ÂÂ  By Johnathan Mun https://books.google.co.in/books?id=X47bm9Etd7ICpg=PA649lpg=PA649dq=decision+tree+applications+oil+and+gassource=blots=W47wkDY2Xtsig=YwtNvZ8KEDJ-60CEK87Xhodouishl=enei=Bnz3TP7kMI-srAec-63vDwsa=Xoi=book_resultct=resultresnum=2ved=0CB0Q6AEwATge#v=onepageq=decision%20tree%20applications%20oil%20and%20gasf=false pgs.258,474 Remington: the science and practice of pharmacy https://books.google.co.in/books?id=NFGSSSbaWjwCpg=PA743lpg=PA743dq=decision+tree+applications+pharmaceuticalssource=blots=V64QMimyuosig=cdQYBEgEJSf_lON-Alkhv4E6B4Ehl=enei=8oT3TLOOLcS3rAfw1azvDwsa=Xoi=book_resultct=resultresnum=6ved=0CDYQ6AEwBTg8#v=onepageqf=false pg.740 decision tree analysis the project manager can use decision tree analysis when a decision involves a series of several interrelated decisions. The project manager computes the Expected Monetary value (EMV) of all strategies and chooses the strategy with the highest EMV. Assume that the project manager has four alternative strategies, S1, S2, S3, S4. The resulatant values for each strategy at different probability levels are R1, R2, and R3. Assume that the probability of occurrence of these results is 0.5, 0.2 and 0.3. the payoff matrix for this problem is given in table 18.4. Table 18.4. Payoff Matrix R1 R2 R3 S1 13 10 9 S2 11 10 8 S3 10 12 11 S4 8 11 10 P=0.5The project manager can also represent this problem as a decision tree. Figure 18.3. depicts the decision tree for the given problem. The project manager finally selects strategy S1 as it has the highest value. EMV (A) = 0.5 ( 13)+0.2(10) +0.3(9) = EMV (B) = 0.5(11) +0.2(10) + 0.3(8) = EMV (C) = 0.5(10) +0.2(12) + 0.3(11) = EMV (D) = 0.5(8) +0.2(11) + 0.3(10) = Review of literature 1. Introduction R and D management, by its very nature, is characterized by uncertainty since effective R and D requires a complex interaction of variables. It is important to balance strategic management (allocate resources and do the right R and D) with operational management (execution of projects) and at the same time take into account issues of people management (leadership, motivation, organisation and teamwork) (Menke, 1994). The strategic aspect of R and D management alone requires the resolution of some very important questions, namely Do we have the right total R and D budget? Are we allocating it to the right business and technology areas? Do we have the right balance of risk and return; of long- and short-term projects; of research vs development; of incremental vs innovation? Are we working on the right projects and programmes with the right effort? It is clear that for success in R and D it is critical to determine what is right for the particular company. The normal p rocess for doing this is through the development of a technology strategy. In practice, the approach used will be that which best fits the operating method of the company but, as Braunstein (1994) has pointed out, the approach is less important than the output, which has to link the corporate goals and strategy to the companys major functional units. Having defined what the business objectives should be for the R and D programme and the overall strategic framework that will define the technology plan, it is then possible to move on to what is probably one of the most problematic parts of technology management, the selection of individual R and D programmes. There is a comprehensive literature of potential methods which can be used (Baker and Pound, 1964; Gear et al., 1971; Souder, 1978). Many of these compare projects with different distributions of possible outcomes and risk, often using relatively complex quantitative methods. There are a number of interdependencies that have t o come good before the project finally produces value for the company and it has been argued (Morris et al., 1991) that because many of the major decisions (and many sub-decisions at intermediate milestones) can be taken singly, the overall process is less risky that might initially be thought. Not surprisingly, therefore, Morris goes on to propose that, when choosing R and D projects, there is merit in going for long shots since this is effectively the purchase of options which can be dropped later if the project does not look like bearing fruit. Moreover, the higher risk projects (almost by definition) tend to be the ones that have the highest payback if they are successful (see also Kester, 1984). 2. Decision making under uncertainty Uncertainty in a business situation is often expressed verbally in terms such as it is likely, it is probable, the chances are, possibly, etc. This is not always very helpful because the words themselves are only useful when they convey the same meaning to all parties. It is clear that different people have different perceptions of the everyday expressions which are often used to describe uncertainty. Uncertainty exists if an action can lead to several possible outcomes and an essential, but, challenging aspect of R and D management is to identify the likelihood or probability that these outcomes or events will occur. There are two main interpretations of probability. The first is grounded in the estimation of the probability of an event in terms of relative frequency with which the event has occurred in the past and is usually referred to as objective probability. The second views probability as being the extent of an individuals or groups belief in the occurrence of an event a nd is usually termed subjective probability. Subjective probability estimates are often included in the models suggested as useful for project selection in R and D planning. Such probabilities might be derived from past experience with similar research projects plus any special features that make the current effort unique or different and alter the past up or down from this base line. A number of tools have been proposed to help in the process of generating probabilities, though they are by no means perfect. Schroder (1975) draws attention to some of the problems that occur in deriving probabilities of technical success and concludes that subjective probabilities are a rather unreliable predictor of the actual outcome of individual success. He proposes a number of reasons for this which he categorises as either intentional or unintentional (conscious biasing). To decrease the unintentional errors he suggests the following actions: O ensure that risk assessors have sufficient e xpertise in their field and a comprehension of subjective probabilities. O improve the availability of information and particularly documentation. O fully exploit information systems and attempt to utilize incentive systems which reward accuracy and reliability. O analyse past performance in assessing probabilities to provide valuable insight into potential improvements. O utilise well-tried approaches to help in the subjective probability assessment. It is evident, however, that some confidence levels need to be established and perhaps the most obvious way of achieving this is by the collation over a period of time, of how prior assessments have compared with reality. For this to have genuine value will require a comparison of the assumptions that have been made at each assessment. 3. The use of financial methods for risk analysis Benefit/cost ratios have been popular for some time, since they are simple and are an attempt to understand the potential gain for the effort required. In performing even a simple benefit/cost analysis, it is necessary for the decision-maker to provide quantitative information in order to ascribe a value to a project. When this has been done, the project can be viewed as a relatively simple financial investment and therefore subject to more standard financial investment tools. The danger of this is that it gives no consideration to the fact that technical programmes are often aimed at a wide range of strategic objectives, a point made by Mitchell and Hamilton (1988) who made a separation into: O exploratory/fundamental type work which is aimed primarily towards the concept of knowledge building. For this type of work, the business impact of which is often poorly defined and wide ranging and here R and D is often best considered as a necessary cost of business. O well under stood technical programmes usually associated with incremental improvements of existing products which can be clearly defined. Here the R and D can be seen as an investment and treated accordingly. As usual with two extremes, the difficult part is the mid-ground where neither approach is particularly suitable. Authors have attempted to use techniques borrowed from the financial community which often has to deal with uncertainty. Risk analysis is a key area in financial markets and several of the approaches used in financial analysis are also found in the R and D management area; for example, decision trees and Monte Carlo analysis.

Personal Statement Bass Co Essay - 1572 Words

You know that time when your parents start making you pay for your own stuff? Well, I have reached that time, and so what do I do? The obvious answer is to get a job. So I walked over to the outlets across from my house, and started asking for job applications. After all the application and interview process, I landed with a job at G.H. Bass Co, a retail store that’s devoted to selling shoes. I become a sale associate, but it wasn’t until after I fully explored and learned about the logos, pathos, and ethos, did I entirely immerse myself into the discourse community. Some may ask why is that important? Or how does this experience contribute to anything? Well, everyone eventually needs to sustain themselves by getting a job, and most job positions also belong to a team, thus it is important to have the skill sets that allow oneself to join a discourse community. This does not only limit to career opportunities, but also include clubs, sports, and other academic discours e communities. 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